Terrorism remains a persistent global threat, with 2024 marking another year of shifting patterns and evolving challenges with the geographic reach of terrorism spreading. The number of countries experiencing at least one terrorist incident increased from 58 to 66, the most countries affected since 2018. In 2024, more countries deteriorated than improved for the first time in seven years, with 45 countries reporting a higher impact from terrorism, while only 34 showed improvement.
Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates remained the deadliest terrorist organisation in 2024, responsible for 1,805 deaths across 22 countries. The four major terrorist organisations, IS, Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and al-Shabaab continued to increase their activity, with deaths attributed to these groups increasing by 11 per cent to 4,204. In 2023, these groups were active in 29 countries which increased to 30 countries in 2024.
In 2024, 36 per cent of terrorist attacks were not claimed by an organisation. IEP has developed a machine learning model to assign these incidents to likely groups. The analysis found that deaths attributed to IS would have been 58 per cent higher, while those linked to JNIM would have been 176 per cent higher. This underscores the challenges in accurately assessing the impact of different terrorist organisations.
In 2024, deaths from terrorism fell to 7,555, representing a 13 per cent decline from the previous year. This reduction was entirely due to the large spike in the prior year from the Hamas October 7th attack, otherwise deaths would have been approximately the same. The number of terrorist attacks also declined, falling by three per cent to 3,492. The drop in incidents was primarily driven by an 85 per cent decrease in terrorist activity in Myanmar. Excluding Myanmar, global terrorist attacks would have increased by eight per cent.
In the West, lone actor terrorism is on the rise with terrorist attacks increasing from 32 to 52 in 2024. These attacks are typically carried out by youths, often in their teens, who have no formal ties to terrorist organisations. Instead, they become radicalised through online content, constructing personal ideologies that often blend conflicting viewpoints influenced via access to fringe forums, gaming environments, encrypted messaging apps and the dark web. Because there are no affiliations, it means these types of attacks are difficult for intelligence agencies to track. Social media algorithms also accentuate biases, pushing disaffected youth towards more radicalised content. In Europe, one in five persons arrested for terrorism is legally classified as a child.
In Europe, terrorist incidents doubled to 67, including attacks by IS and Hamas. The resurgence of attacks was particularly notable in seven Western countries – Sweden, Australia, Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland, with Germany being the worst ranked nation at 27th on the Index. There are now seven Western countries ranked amongst the 50 most impacted countries on the GTI. Meanwhile, in the US, antisemitic and Islamophobic hate crimes escalated sharply following the start of the Gaza war, with FBI-recorded incidents targeting the Jewish community rising by 270 per cent in just two months. Similar patterns emerged in Europe and Australia, where attacks on synagogues were reported throughout the year.
Terrorism in the Sahel has increased significantly, with deaths rising nearly tenfold since 2019. In 2024, the Sahel accounted for 51 per cent of all terrorism deaths, while overall conflict deaths in the region exceeded 25,000 for the first time since the inception of the Index. Of these, 3,885 were attributed to terrorism. Terrorism deaths here are now ten times higher than in 2019.
The Sahel remains the global epicentre of terrorism, accounting for over half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024 with the number of countries affected increasing. Five of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism are in this region. Although Burkina Faso remains the most affected country, both deaths and attacks declined, falling by 21 and 57 per cent respectively, however the country is still responsible for a fifth of all terrorism deaths globally.
Niger highlights how fragile progress in reducing terrorism deaths can be. In 2024, the country recorded the largest increase in terrorism deaths globally, rising by 94 per cent to a total of 930, reversing previous improvements from 2022 when it had the second largest improvement. Niger’s example may mean that the improvements in Burkina Faso are transitory.
Geopolitical changes continue to shape security dynamics across the Sahel. The Alliance of Sahelian States, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has moved away from the West, instead strengthening ties with Russia and China. This shift, along with the bloc’s withdrawal from ECOWAS, has created opportunities for groups such as JNIM to expand their activities into coastal West Africa. Togo recorded its worst year for terrorism since the inception of the Index, reflecting the broader spread of terrorist activity beyond the Sahel’s traditional hotspots.
March 16, 2025 Published by The Institute for Economics & Peace. (Report PDF)
